This section offers an extensive range of models and techniques that we have developed and used in solving common problems which we have come across in applying risk analysis to many different fields. The material is organized into the following sections:
Project risk analysis: Risks and uncertainty that affect how long it will take, and how much it will cost, to complete a project.
Financial risk analysis: Various aspects of corporate finance and financial markets modeling, from correct application and interpretation of risk in discounted cash flow analyzes, to evaluating real and financial options and the stochastic modeling of share price. Some of the models developed in the time series section are also applicable to finance.
Time series: Techniques useful in modeling the behavior of a random variable over time (e.g. sales volume, commodity price, share price, bacterial growth, etc.).
Sum of a number of random variables: A very common error in risk models is in the treatment of the sum of random variables, so we have developed a special section here to help you.
Modeling expert opinion: The appropriate modeling of subjective, probabilistic estimates starts with asking the right questions, and finishes with making the model match the answers you get. We show you how to go about it.
Other problems and applications: modeling problems from different fields can sometimes be reduced down to the same conceptual models. We have put together a range of conceptual problems here, together with the solutions, and some examples of their application.