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Comment: Added links to Pert distribution sections


Once the model has been sufficiently disaggregated, it is usually not necessary to provide very precise estimates of each individual component of the model. In fact, three point estimates are often quite sufficient: the three points being the minimum, most likely and maximum values the expert believes the value could take. These three values can be used to define either a Triangular distribution or some form of PERT distribution. Our preference is to use a PERT, as described here, because it has a natural shape that will invariably match the experts view better than a Triangular distribution would. The analyst should attempt to determine the expert's opinion of the maximum value first and then the minimum, by considering scenarios that could produce such extremes. Then, the expert should be asked for his/her opinion of the most likely value within that range. Determining the parameters in the order: 1. maximum, 2. minimum and 3.most likely will go some way to removing the anchoring bias.