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  • The data have simply never been collected in the past;

  • The data are too expensive to obtain;

  • Past data are no longer relevant (new technology, changes in political or commercial environment, etc.);

  • The data are sparse, requiring expert opinion "r; to fill in the holes";data gaps

  • The area being modeled is new.

The uncertainty in subjective estimates has two components: the inherent randomness of the variable itself and the uncertainty arising from the expert's lack of knowledge of the model parameter. In a risk analysis model, these uncertainties may or may not be distinguished but both types of uncertainty should at least be accounted for in a model. The variability is best included by assuming some sort of stochastic model and the uncertainty is then included in the uncertainty distributions for the model parameters.

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