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EpiX Analytics LLC. ModelAssist (Version 5.0) [Software]. (2018).  Boulder, CO, USA.  Available from


References used in ModelAssist

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Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., and Rubin, D. B., (2004). Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall, London.

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Gettinby, G.D., Sinclair C.D., Power D.M. and Brown R.A. (2004). "An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000". J  Business Finance & Accounting 31(5):607 - 646

Gumbel, E. J., Statistics of extremes, Columbia University Press (1958).

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Haimes, Y.Y. (1998). Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, J Wiley, NY

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Hull, J. C., Options, futures, and other derivative securities 2nd ed, Prentice Hall International Editions (1993).

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The reader is directed to the following publications that we use at Epix Analytics and consider to be of good quality for a more in-depth explanation of some of the topics covered in this software:


Evans JR and Olson L (1998). Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis. Prentice Hall, NJ

Law AM and Kelton WD (2000). Simulation Modeling and Analysis, 3rd ed. McGraw-Hill.

Morgan, MG and Henrion M (1990). Uncertainty. Cambridge.

Vose D (2008). Risk analysis, 3nd ed. J Wiley, Chichester, UK.


Business risk and decision analysis

Clemen RT and Reilly T (2004). Making Hard Decisions. Duxbury, CA.

Goodwin P and Wright G (1998). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. Wiley, NY.

Jensen FV (2001). Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer, NY

Koller G (1999). Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry. CRC, FL.

Lehman D, Groenendaal H and Nolder G (2011). Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management. Chapman and Hall/CRC.

Raiffa H and Schlaiffer R (2000) Applied Statistical Decision Theory. Wiley Classics, NY

Schuyler J (2001). Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects. PMI.

Vose D (2008). Risk analysis, 3nd ed. J Wiley, Chichester, UK.


Extreme value theory

Gumbel, E. J., (1958). Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press.

Embrechts P, Klupperberg C and Mikosch T (1999). modeling Extreme Events for Insurance and Finance. Springer.



Embrechts P, Klupperberg C and Mikosch T (1999). modeling Extreme Events for Insurance and Finance. Springer.

Klugman SA, Panjer HH and Willmot GE (1998). Loss Models: from data to decisions. Wiley, NY.

Rolski T et al (1999). Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance. Wiley.


Financial risk

Brealey RM and Myers SC (2002). Principles of Corporate Finance, 7th ed. McGraw Hill Higher Education

Cox, J.C. and Rubinstein, M. (1985) Options Markets. Prentice Hall.

Cox J, Ross S and Rubenstein M (1979). "Option pricing: a Simplified Approach." J Financial Economics 7 229-263.

Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R. 1994. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

Dunis C (1996). Forecasting Financial Markets. Wiley, NY.

Hull JC (1993). Options, Futures, and other Derivative Securities.  Prentice Hall.

Wilmott (2001). Paul Wilmott Introduces Quantitative Finance, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., West Sussex, England.

Wilmott P (1998). The Theory and Practice of Financial Engineering, John Wiley and Sons

Wilmott P (1998). Dervatives. J Wiley, Chichester, UK



Bennett DJ (1998). Randomness.Harvard.

Laplace, Marquis de (1951). A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities. Dover.

Peterson I (1998). The Jungles of Randomness; a mathematical safari. Wiley.


The Bootstrap

Chernick, MR (1999). Bootstrap Methods – a practical guide. Wiley Interscience, NY.

Davison AC and Hinkley DV (1997). Bootstrap Methods and their Applications. Cambridge, UK.

Efron B and Tibshirani RJ (1993). An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Chapman & Hall/CRC. Boca Raton, FL.


General statistics and probability theory

Barnett V (1999). Comparative Statistical Inference, 3rd ed. Wiley.

Casella, G., and Berger, R. L. (1990). Statistical Inference, Brooks/Cole Pub. Co.

Evans M, Hastings N and Peacock B (1993). Statistical Distributions. Wiley.

Feller W (1968). An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications (Volume 1), 3rd ed. J Wiley, New Jersey, US.

Groebner, D. E. and Shannon, P. F., (1993). Business statistics: a decision-making approach. MacMillan, NY.

Levin, R. I. and Rubin, D. S., (1994) Statistics for Management, Prentice Hall, Inc, NJ.

Lipschutz, S., (1974). Probability, Schaum's outline series, McGraw Hill.

McClave JT, Dietrich FH, and Sincich T (1997). Statistics, 7th ed Prentice Hall

Rozanov YA (1969). Probability Theory: a concise course. Dover.

Ross SM (2009). Introduction to Probability Models, 10th ed. Academic Press.

Student (W.S. Gosset) (1908) The probable error of a mean. Biometrika 6(1):1—25

Taylor, HM and Karlin, S (1998). An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, 3rd ed. Academic Press, London.


Project risk analysis

Chapman C and Ward S (1997). Project Risk Management. Wiley, Chichester, UK.

Grey, S., (1995). Practical Risk Assessment for Project Management, J Wiley & Sons.

Godfrey, P. et al. (1996). Control of Risk, CIRIA

Simon, P (Ed) (1997). Project Risk Analysis and Management, APM, Norwich, UK.


Reliability theory

Bentley JP (1999). Reliability and Quality Engineering. Addison-Wesley, Harlow, UK.

Kottegoda NT and Rosso R (1998). Statistics, Probability and reliability for Civil and Environmental Engineers. McGraw-Hill.

O'Connor, P. D. T., (1994). Practical reliability engineering, 3rd ed, J Wiley & Sons.


Queueing theory

Bunday BD (1996). An Introduction to Queueing Theory. Arnold, London.


Bayesian statistics

Berry DA and Stamgl DK (1996). Bayesian Biostatistics. Dekker, NY

Carlin BP and Louis TA (1996). Bayes and Empirical Bayes methods for Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall.

Congdon, P (2007) Bayesian Statistical Modeling (2nd ed). Wiley.

Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., and Rubin, D. B., (2004). Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall, London

Jensen FV (2001). Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Springer, NY

Ntzoufras, I. (2009) Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS. Wiley. New Jersey.

Pole A, West M and Harrison J (1999). Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis. CRC, FL.

Press SJ (1989). Bayesian Statistics: Principles, Models and Applications. J Wiley



Dunis C (1996). Forecasting Financial Markets. Wiley, NY.

Newbold, P., and Bos, T., (1994). Introductory Business and Economic Forecasting, 2nd ed, South Western Publishing, Cincinnati, Ohio.

Pole A, West M and Harrison J (1999). Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis. CRC, FL.


General risk analysis

Newendorp, P, (1975). Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, Penwell, Tulsa.

Olkin, I., Glaser, L. J., and Derman, C., (1980). Probability Models and Applications, MacMillan, New York.

Patel, J.K., Kapadia, C.H., and Owen, D.B., (1976). Handbook of statistical distributions, Marcel Decker, Inc.

Vose D (2008). Risk analysis, 3nd ed. J Wiley, Chichester, UK.



Clayton D and Hills M (1998). Statistical Models in Epidemiology. Oxford.

Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP (2000). Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, J Wiley, Chichester.

Dohoo I, Martin W and Stryhn H (2010). Veterinary Epidemiological Research, 2nd ed.Charlottetown, PE, Canada: Atlantic Veterinary College.

Pearl J (2000). Causality: models, reasoning and inference. Cambridge.

Shipley W (2000). Cause and Correlation in Biology. Cambridge.

Torrence ME and Isaacson RE (2003). Microbial Food Safety in Animal Agriculture. Iowa State Press.


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