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title: "Showing probability ranges"
canonical: "https://modelassist.epixanalytics.com/space/EA/26575473/Showing%20probability%20ranges"
format: markdown
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Once we have simulation results, it's simple to obtain probabilities using [numerical integration](https://epixanalytics.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/EA/pages/26575285) methods. The examples below show you how to automatically obtain probabilities using different simulation software:
Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball offers the facility to divide a histogram plot into up to three areas by using delimiters in two different ways:
In this first example, the user has defined the lower limit as the 5% mark and the upper limit as the 95% mark. In Crystal Ball 7.0+, you can find these percentiles easily by dragging the delimiters to the points you wish. In the older versions of Crystal Ball, one has to go through the following steps:
1. Make sure the right limit box (in the figure above 203,086.63) is +infinity
2. Put the cursor in the left limit box
3. Now put the cursor in the "Certainty box" and type 95%
4. Click enter --> now the left limit box will change to the 5%-percentile (above 54,735.98)
5. Put the cursor in the right limit box
6. Now put the cursor in the "Certainty box" and type 90%
7. Click enter --> now the right limit box will change to the 5%-percentile (above 203,086.63)
This approach is useful if your organization consistently requires only two percentiles in a risk analysis model, and one could then dispense with showing a cumulative plot as well.
Alternatively, we could illustrate some target value(s) on the plot using Crystal Ball delimiters:
In this example, our budget is $6,000.00 with a reserve of an extra $125,000.00. The histogram shows that we have approximately an 54.34% probability of being in a situation where you are over the budget, but where your budget + contingency would cover the total project cost.
@Risk
@RISK offers the facility to divide a histogram plot into up to three areas by using delimiters.
In this example, we have defined the lower limit as the 5% mark, and the upper limit as the 95% mark. This approach is useful if your organization consistently requires only two percentiles in a risk analysis model, and one could then dispense with showing a cumulative plot as well
Alternatively, we could illustrate some target value(s) on the plot using @RISK delimiters:
The figure above shows the distribution of the estimated cost of a project, in $000. Our budget is $110,000 with an additional reserve of $15,000. The histogram shows that we have approximately an 85% probability of being under budget, and about a 99% probability that your budget + contingency would cover the total project cost.
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